How the 2026 Midterm Elections Can Impact the Solar Industry

September 1 unofficially kicks off election season, with the midterm elections here before we know it. It’s hard to think of another industry that has been so affected by policy changes under the Trump Administration as solar, so it’s reasonable to question what might happen after the midterms.

Obviously, the outcome of the elections, and which party controls the House and the Senate, will heavily influence policy agendas. Here are the biggest solar policy items we’ll be tracking as election season heats up.

Could the tax credit come back?

Whether or not the consumer-claimed federal solar tax credit comes back is probably the biggest question on the minds of homeowners thinking about going solar. To refresh, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill ended the homeowner-claimed tax credit at midnight on New Year’s Eve; but it preserved business-owned tax credits through 2027, unless those projects were “started” by July 4, 2026.

This means that homeowners’ projects can still potentially receive the benefit of a tax credit through products like Prepaid PPAs and leases, even if the homeowner can’t directly claim the tax credit.

For this reason alone, there is not a strong push to restore the homeowner-claimed tax credit and we’ll tag this as highly unlikely for now.

Potential Solar Policy Changes Post-Midterms

If the Democrats win control of the House and the Senate, it’s reasonable to think there would be a legislative push to extend the business-claimed tax credits beyond 2027. Solar is the fastest and cheapest energy to deploy and with the AI boom there’s a widening gap between supply and demand. The country needs more power generation, and quickly. Extending the tax credits would help more of these projects be built.

However, these tax credits might only be extended if they use a certain percentage of US components, perhaps tied to the current Domestic Content standards. This would help preserve the viability of the solar production factories that have been built in the last few years.

The industry likely won’t see relief on the myriad of tariffs and taxes placed on it since Trump retook office, as many of those are under Executive authority.

When Would New Solar Policy be Signed into Law?

If Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate, they’ll likely do so with narrow margins, which means any legislation will need to be signed by the President. If this happens, Trump will enter a “lame duck” period where there is likely little to no legislation passed of consequence.

The one vehicle that’s been used by both parties is to tack on legislation through a reconciliation budgetary process, which often begins in April or May, although it doesn’t follow a fixed calendar. Whether or not the Democrats want to force solar-positive policy through this process remains to be seen.

Is Solar Red or Blue? Let’s Frame it as Purple

On a recent webinar, industry luminary Dan Fadden shared his view that the solar industry shouldn’t cater to one party or side of the aisle. Solar should present itself as purple; or a blend of right and left orthodoxy.

With the investment in manufacturing assets and the requirement for more cost-effective power generation, solar offers a lot for both parties. It’s up to the industry to reframe itself not as a party that wins under Democratic control and loses when the GOP holds power, but rather one that can offer meaningful solutions and values to whoever holds office.